Tag Archives: China

Can Nuclear Power Make a Comeback?

Here’s a link to an “Economist” article that discusses the ambitions of the Chinese nuclear power sector:

LINK: Nuclear power in China

Nuclear power has been an industria non grata since the Fukushima disaster that occured five and a half years ago.

The world has changed, but it still strikes me as odd how soon we have forgotten the promise of the nuclear power sector just ten years ago.

For instance, here is a chart of the uranium prices over the past 15 years:

uranium

And here is a chart of a uranium miner ETF (URA US) since its inception:

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Chinese Pension Funds to Begin Buying Chinese Stocks

Last week I wrote a post that discussed the Chinese government’s signaling to local investors (LINK) through lower margin rates.

Yesterday, China announced that their pension funds would begin purchasing Chinese equities this year:

LINK: CHINESE PENSION FUNDS TO BEGIN BUYING CHINESE STOCKS

Typically, pension funds and other large institutional investors don’t signal what they intend to buy so as to avoid front running (buying before a large buyer enters a position, and selling after the price has been driven higher), but it seems as if this is just what the Chinese government would like to encourage.

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A Not So Invisible Hand: The Chinese Government & Margin Trading

One of my takeaways from listening to the panel on investing in China at the JP Morgan conference earlier this month is the role the Chinese government plays in ‘signaling’.

For example, one of the panelists pointed out that when the government deemed that last year’s stock rally was overdone, they began to restrict margin lending. Around the same time, restrictions on buying property were lowered. Savvy investors would have prospered by a timely move out of stocks back into real estate.

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Juggernaut: China Mobile Shopping

In our last post, I discussed technical analysis and trend lines in the form of moving averages (Is today the day the market finds direction?).

Today I would like to steer your attention to the sorts of economic and societal trends that we try to identify and make a part of our investment decision making process.

One of the foremost among these is the burgeoning consumer culture in China, and its most dynamic embodiment: mobile shopping.

Here’s an article from cnbc.com that discusses just how much more advanced and widespread Chinese mobile shopping habits are than in the US:

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Genies and Asset Prices

In this link, Tyler Cowan of George Mason University is asked the following question:

You are an investor with $10 million planning to cash out in 20 years. A genie appears and offers to send you the price of one but only one asset 20 years from now to inform your investment decisions (a stock, currency pair, commodity, equity index, etc.). What do you want to know?

LINK: MARGINAL INVESTOR

This simple question is actually quite an interesting thought experiment. Cowan states that he would look for “a price with some persistence, and which contains lots of information about other prices too.” He settles on the Shanghai Composite Index. It makes sense that an economist would provide this answer. China is poised to become the world’s largest economy and surely the performance of its major stock index should be a revealing indicator of many other asset prices as well.

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Pessimism -vs- Optimism… And a Brief Comparison of Hysterical Oil Prophecies

When I began my career as an institutional equity trader in Canada fourteen years ago, commodity prices where just about to make one of the most fantastic runs in market history. China was rising – and it was hungry. Hungry for the copper that would be needed for millions of miles of power lines. Hungry for the uranium that would power their new power stations. Hungry for the nickel and iron that would create the stainless steel needed for millions of cars and household appliances. Most of all, China was hungry for the lifeblood of modern industry and economic growth: oil.

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