Tag Archives: Economics

This Is Not Just A Trump Rally…

People often fall prey to over-simplifying things.

A poignant example of this tendency is the that market rally since the US presidential elections has been dubbed the “Trump Rally”. This oversimplification does not give credit to the fact that many of the drivers of this current market environment were set in motion before the elections. Here is a list of important charts that evidence this point:

LINK: Market Not All About Trump

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Global Outlook Improves

As market commentators attempt to deride the “Trump rally”, they are actually missing the broader picture of the multi-faceted economic growth that is going on globally.

Scott Grannis provides some great commentary and charts in the following blog post:
LINK: Global Outlook Improves

Here’s a interesting comparison between US and European stocks and industrial production:

Oh, and by the way, emerging market stocks are doing best of all:

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US Small Business Optimism Explodes

US markets have continued to trade higher in the new year. Whether this unfettered optimism will be justified remains to be seen. However, what is abundantly clear is that American businesses are feeling very good about themselves and the prospect of tax reforms under a Trump presidency and Republican control of both the Senate and the Congress.

Here’s the latest blowout number from the NFIB Small Business Optimism survey:
nfib

The S&P 500 continues its upward trajectory:
spx-jan10

Here’s Scott Grannis with some more charts. Grannis also makes the prescient point that US businesses have been under-investing in capital goods and that improved confidence could do much to fill the gap:

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Closing The Obama Gap

real-gdp-vs-3-trend

The current US economic rate of recovery has significantly lagged the historical trend of US GDP growth. Many have argued that this is due to the fact that the “low hanging fruit” has already been picked. Scott Grannis places the blame on poor economic policy from the Obama administration, which has instituted policies that have made businesses more risk averse and thus more hesitant to invest. Reforms in tax policy could to much to restore business confidence. Yesterday’s excellent consumer confidence number points to the right direction:

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